Blog Post by Zella Ertl, Junior Associate

For decades, the United States has been the most popular destination for Canadian “Snowbirds” to escape the cold during the winter months. However, in 2025, rental homes in Florida and Arizona remain empty, flights remain unbooked, and Canadian wallets stay shut.[1] Since January, travel by Canadian residents to the U.S. has sharply declined, with the Canadian government recording an over 35% drop in return automobile trips[2] and a 27% drop in air travel since last year.[3] Canadian visitation to the U.S. has fallen 19% since last June, a downturn that raises the question: has the new administration’s economic stance broken North America’s closest travel relationship?[4]

The Travel Health Insurance Association of Canada surveyed in 2025, revealing that 41% of Canadian respondents cited the rising cost of travel as one of the reasons for avoiding the United States.[5] Respondents also cited political tensions, poor exchange rates, and safety concerns as their reasons for avoiding cross-border travel this winter.[6] Nearly half a million Canadian snowbirds own real estate in the United States. However, after paying a 70% premium for travel this year, a large number are selling their U.S. homes and considering long-term rentals in Mexico or the Caribbean, or keeping their money in Canadian properties.[7]

By deterring visits from its northern neighbors, the United States stands to lose over $2.1 billion in spending by Canadian visitors, who generate more than $20.5 billion in yearly revenue and support American jobs.[8] Border towns like Sault Ste. Marie, MI,[9] and Burke, VT, are already feeling the declines in business that would typically come from Canadian tourists.[10] Meanwhile, there has been a surge in Canadian domestic tourism this year, likely the result of new registration requirements for Canadians staying in the U.S. for more than 30 days, the depreciated Canadian dollar, and updated travel advisories for the United States.[11]

Trade frictions, shifting visa expectations, and political rhetoric have eroded confidence in cross-border mobility.[12] As former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau put it, reflecting a broader national sentiment, it is “time to choose Canada.”[13] The tone of recent U.S. discourse has only deepened this divide.[14] In late February, President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social, “I’ll be calling our GREAT American Hockey Team this morning to spur them on towards victory tonight against Canada, which with FAR LOWER TAXES AND MUCH STRONGER SECURITY, will someday, maybe soon, become our cherished, and very important, Fifty First State.”[15]

For many Canadians, this rhetoric underscores a shift from mutual respect between neighboring countries to a strained, subordinate relationship. So, as the Canadian snowbirds redirect their routes away from the United States, we wonder whether a new era of self-reliance and hostility is dawning.

[1] Lauren Feather, Canadian Snowbirds Reveal They’re Canceling the U.S., But Not Because of President Trump, The Travel (Nov. 2, 2025), https://www.thetravel.com/survey-why-canadian-snowbirds-decline-us-travel-winter-2025/.

[2] Carter McCormack & Laura Presley, Recent changes in Canadian-resident travel to the United States, Statistics Canada (June 25, 2025), https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2025006/article/00006-eng.htm.

[3] Feather, supra note 1.

[4] Michael Broadway & Joslin Brown, Canadian Tourists, Boycotts and the Eastern U.P.: An Update on Summer 2025, Rural Insights (Sep. 3, 2025), https://ruralinsights.org/content/canadian-tourists-boycotts-and-the-eastern-u-p-an-update-on-summer-2025/.

[5] Feather, supra note 1.

[6] Id. 

[7] Id. 

[8] Potential Results of Decline in Canadian Travel to United States, U.S. Travel Association (Feb. 3, 2025), https://www.ustravel.org/press/potential-results-decline-canadian-travel-united-states.

[9] Broadway, supra note 4.

[10] William Brangham & Diane Lincoln Estes, Canadian Tourism to U.S. Drops Dramatically Amid Trump’s Harsh Rhetoric, PBS (July 16, 2025), https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/canadian-tourism-to-u-s-drops-dramatically-amid-trumps-harsh-rhetoric.

[11] Kiefer Van Mulligen, U.S. Trade War Represents an $8.8 Billion Potential Gain for Canadian Tourism, The Conference Board of Canada (May 29, 2025), https://www.conferenceboard.ca/insights/us-trade-war-represents-an-8-8-billion-potential-gain-for-canadian-tourism/.

[12] Id. 

[13] Potential Results of Decline in Canadian Travel to United States, supra note 8.

[14] Id. 

[15] Belle Fraser, What Donald Trump Said to the U.S. Ice Hockey Team Ahead of a Championship Game vs. Canada, The Salt Lake Tribune (Feb. 20, 2025), https://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-hockey-club/2025/02/20/what-donald-trump-said-us-ice/.